DbFX Review He escrito anteriormente una revisión y pensé que los había calificado. Yo dbFX un 4 estrellas. ¿Por qué porque no creo que hay un 5 estrellas allí todavía. Pero tienen un gran servicio al cliente, y son en su mayoría honesto. 2010-10-05 No Rating dbFX es un mejor corredor que FXCM, FX SOL, y algunos otros que probé. Los corredores anteriores tomaron mi dinero. FXCM reembolsado, aunque sólo la pérdida, no la ganancia que debería haber tenido. FX SOL tenía spreads ridículos. FXCM me estaba dejando fuera de los comercios. Sin embargo, me parece que dbFX también me está deteniendo en los oficios. En mi opinión, si usted lee algo acerca de Boston Technologies, y su Biz Plan para ser un corredor, youll rápidamente se dan cuenta de todos los corredores están esencialmente autorizados a robar. Y la mayoría lo hacen. DbFX, aunque me resbalen, me dan las dos cosas. Siempre responden al teléfono, personas más agradables en el planeta, sin correo de voz, no presione este botón - directamente a través de cada vez a menos que algo desastroso sucedió en el mercado o la plataforma, como estrellarse, y todo el mundo está llamando. TAMBIÉN, puedo establecer mis paradas y beneficios antes de ejecutar. Nunca visto 100 pips ir en 1 sec Bueno, tomar un comercio, y ver cómo antes de establecer una parada, una vez youll conseguir su trasero masticado por un pico, porque algunos de estos corredores le hacen el comercio y luego establecer sus paradas. También, miro dbFX contra otros precios de banco y corredor, y el suyo es siempre más equilibrado, los otros más altos que el preguntar, más bajo que la oferta. Software Uso teletrader y Leverage FX fuera de Florida. Me dan toda la información que necesito para ejecutar a una tasa de 85-90 de victorias. Pero yo tenía lo mismo con los otros corredores y dbFX eclipsa en todas las áreas. ¿Son perfectos? Cuando alguien me da los fondos, empezaré mal la corretaje perfecta, hasta entonces - tomaría dbFX como el menor de todos los males. Después de todo, corredor o banquero, no importa con quién se negocie, usted está a su merced - por lo menos ahora mismo. Me gusta mucho dbfx. No he tenido ninguno de los problemas que la mayoría de la gente menciona. Lo hice en un momento ver algún desliz, pero eso sucede cuando hay toneladas de actividad ya veces no podré cerrar mi posición durante esos períodos muy activos. Esto puede ser un problema, si estoy escalpelando o han puesto en una pérdida de parada muy apretado y estoy tratando de arrebatar un par de pips. Pero por lo demás, no he tenido otros problemas. He ganado dinero y perdido dinero. He estado con dbfx por ahora un poco más de dos años. La otra cuestión de fxcm versus dbfx, no estoy preocupado. Me preocupa la reputación, la estabilidad y la seguridad. Nada se concede en la vida, especialmente forex, pero tener la reina maría de la industria de la divisa es mejor que algún remolcador por ahí. Esto es estúpido. Me recomiendan unirme a FXCM. Creo que el rumor es tan cierto. Son etiqueta blanca para FXCM Estimado Dexxx xxxxx, Hemos recibido y revisado su formulario de apertura de cuenta dbFX. Las políticas y procedimientos corporativos de dbFXs mantienen que los clientes deben cumplir ciertos requisitos con el fin de financiar y negociar en margen FX. Su formulario de apertura de cuenta no cumplió con estos requisitos por las siguientes razones: - El valor neto especificado es menor que el importe requerido por dbFX. - Los activos líquidos especificados son inferiores a la cantidad requerida por dbFX. Sin embargo, si todavía está interesado en abrir una cuenta de margen de divisas, Deutsche Bank puede remitir en su nombre, su nombre y datos de contacto a Forex Capital Markets LLC (FXCM), que puede acomodar su solicitud. (FXCM es un distribuidor FX independiente que no está afiliado ni garantizado por Deutsche Bank). Si desea que le pasemos su información a FXCM, responda a este correo electrónico dándonos su consentimiento para proporcionar sus datos a FXCM. Un representante de FXCM se pondrá en contacto con usted directamente para discutir la apertura de una cuenta comercial. Si tiene alguna pregunta, póngase en contacto con nosotros por correo electrónico a admindbfx o al 1 (212) 710-9000 beginoftheskypehighlighting Jackson Hole, WY Seguro, DBFX probablemente tiene algo de la mayor liquidez al por menor en el negocio, pero el banco llamado Se encuentra a usted antes de abrir una cuenta sobre cualquier cosa que quieren mentir sobre usted. Pasé mucho tiempo investigando intermediarios FX y me dijo por DBFX que era nadie en la industria, habiendo ganado realmente premios para ser el número uno en la industria. Bueno, ¿qué significa el número uno, cuando mientes a personas que me contaron los representantes de DBFX, que podría operar en la plataforma MT4 y utilizar mi MT4 EA. También me dijeron que podía probar mi MT4 EA antes de depositar fondos. No hasta después de depositar mis fondos y abrir una cuenta, ¿alguien en DBFX se molestó en decirme que: 1) Ellos hospedan sus servidores MT4 en Boston Technologies - No en una ubicación real de DBFX. 2) La cuenta de MT4 Demo de Boston Technologies era una cuenta de inicio de sesión compartida. Lo que significa, todo el mundo en el mundo podría ver sus operaciones y, lo que es más importante, ALTER sus operaciones en curso. 3) Si realizó una EA mientras probaba su cuenta demo de MT4 DBFX / Boston Tech, cualquiera que haya iniciado sesión en esa misma cuenta compartida podría cerrar cualquier posición que abriera su EA, destruyendo así el propósito de probar un EA en el PRIMER LUGAR Gracias por Dejándome saber ANTES de abrir mi cuenta, DBFX. Usted se está comportando exactamente como FXCM - una carrera de la fábrica de Forex Broker de venta al por menor. No como el BANCO a la escala que se supone que eres. ¿No una sola persona en DBFX tiene el más mínimo problema con dar a comerciantes una conexión compartida para probar a consejeros expertos con usted no puede conseguir funcionamiento de comercio exacto con la gente que altera con sus posiciones abiertas. Usted es un banco, por los bienes de la bondad - sin duda se podría haber dado para conseguir este derecho la primera vez. En su mayor parte, DB es el 1 banco que intento alejarse de este país. Su alemán más grande. Los grandes bancos minoristas (cualquier cosa) casi nunca van juntos. DBs La banca minorista / sucursal europea es decididamente poco espectacular, por ejemplo. Razón de ser: DB doesnt realmente se preocupan por la gente regular. Ellos hacen su dinero con la banca de inversión, forex interbancario - son de hecho 1 por ms con los números proporcionados por mi amigo sueco en el blanco - individuos de alto valor neto. DB no está lejos de golpear un 25 de retorno sobre el capital Eso debería darle una idea en lo que respecta a las prioridades se refiere. Por esa misma razón me sentía como probar dbfx. Sólo ha estado negociando (demo) con ellos por un corto tiempo, pero hasta ahora estoy gratamente sorprendido. Aturdido, más bien. Sus spreads vienen RAZONABLEMENTE CERCANOS a Dukascopys pero no cobran comission. Por alguna razón bizzare SCALPING HACE INDEEED TRABAJO MUY BIEN EN dbfxs plataforma. Havent visto mucho requoting el como pasa, incluso durante sesiones de alto volumen bajo. Su depósito minmum es de 5 000 o 10 000. Concedido thats hacia el extremo superior. Sin embargo, en el caso de Dukascopy, aconsejaría encarecidamente a todo el mundo que incluya también 10 millones, simplemente para mantener bajos los costos de comisión. A pesar de que me gusta la plataforma dbfxs no ha tenido ningún problema con él, creo que DC para ser más versátil si un poco más complicado. La cosa de dbfx de FXCM es un argumento perfectamente inútil. Con los corredores de divisas el problema es casi NUNCA la tecnología empleada, pero la piscina de liquidez disponible. En ese sentido, la posición de dbfxs como un creador de mercado en lugar de un DC como Interbank-Market-Access Provider se vuelve menos interesante. Si dbfx utiliza sólo una fracción del volumen de liquidez de los DB, probablemente excede todas las capacidades de otros MMs por un vasto múltiplo. Aunque sospecho que dbfx es un híbrido - MM en el extremo receptor de sus operaciones, mientras que el acceso parcial a la divisa interbancaria - incluso si se tratara de un MM puro no hay manera en el infierno dbfx podría meterse con usted en el sentido clásico. El segundo depende de MAN POWER. En particular, si dbfx comparte espacio de oficina con FXCM esto sugiere una falta de voluntad para ser un FABRICANTE DE MERCADO ACTIVO. DB no es la empresa que se mueve en los modelos de negocio de mano de obra intensiva. Además, dbfx parece PRIMARILY atender a 50k clientes que el grupo no le gusta ser ensuciado con demasiado claramente. Para todos los propósitos propósito dbfx puede ser considerado como un NDD MM no intervencionistas en el menos. Para que dbfx utilice las estructuras de FXCM, la tecnología minorista mientras emplea su propia - TRES difícil de encontrar - el activo (liquidez) me parece más sensato de lo que yo habría creído que el banco era capaz. ¿Por qué gastar tiempo en dinero fácilmente disponible (modelo de negocio, estructura no-cohete-ciencia-tecnología) cuando no tienen que poner las joyas de la corona para la venta a cambio En cuanto a las preocupaciones en cuanto a la seguridad de sus fondos otros problemas de estafa Están preocupados, no habrá ninguna. En términos relativos, DB salió de la crisis financiera apenas tocada y mucho más fuerte que muchos de sus competidores (no sé si me gusta o no, pero así es). El gobierno federal prevé un seguro de depósito bastante generoso y las posibilidades de que DB busque no existan para empezar. Su participación en el mercado interbancario de divisas hace que la empresa sea tan vital para el sistema monetario mundial que demasiado grande para fallar ni siquiera tocarlo. No puedo decir mucho sobre el procedimiento de apertura de cuenta, pero supongo que quieren información bastante detallada. Does FXCM no quiere Co wort neto, así, aunque Dukascopy hace. Tal vez dbfx quiere prueba no sólo un número. Sin embargo, recuerdo que FXCM EE. UU. quería PRUEBA que haber sido la razón por la que decidí en contra de ellos. Por lo que he oído, los corredores fx estadounidenses tienen algunos de los procedimientos más estrictos por ahí, pero podría estar equivocado. Dentro de los requisitos de la UE varía Yo asumiría DB Alemania para estar entre los jugadores más molesto. FXCM UK fue menos complicado que FCM US, pero todavía estaba mal. Sin embargo, si usted está mirando a FXCM EE. UU. dbfx, dbfx PARECE como un trato mucho mejor - suponiendo que la apertura de la cuenta molestia ser igual. Por último, aunque odio proporcionar información personal, he notado una clara correlación entre los requisitos de fiabilidad. Supongo que es porque es INCORRECTO PARA CREER QUE USTED NO ESTÁ SOLICITANDO UN PRÉSTAMO Usted es, su apalancamiento llamado. Cuanto más confiable sea un lugar, mayor será la probabilidad de que NO EMPLEEN MEDIOS PARA CURBAR SUS BENEFICIOS y realmente los pagan por encima. El apalancamiento de los últimos casos es un préstamo real de apalancamiento REAL. En el primer caso, de hecho pensaría en los depósitos como darles dinero. Caus el MM escurridizo es libre de alterar las condiciones comerciales casi como lo consideren conveniente, que están efectivamente en control de su línea de crédito (incluso si dice 400: 1). Los lugares reputados no tienen esa opción o eligieron no actuar de esta manera. Así que su 100: 1 realmente debe ser considerado un préstamo. En resumen, mientras que DukasC sigue siendo mi favorito por su enfoque de negocio único: No en el extremo receptor de mis operaciones, spreads bajos, lotes fraccionarios tan pequeños como 1000 unidades de divisas (esencialmente proporcionando una micro cuenta con los mismos grandes spreads de forma gratuita) El depósito de min de apoyo al cliente de 1k dbfx es la alternativa más interesante que he encontrado. Los spreads son tan buenos que el comercio con ellos podría ser un poco más barato que en el caso DC (sin comisión). Sin embargo, hay menos opciones de sistema disponibles, el tamaño de lote mínimo es de 10 000 unidades, el depósito mínimo mucho más alto y el Procedimientos de apertura de cuentas aparentemente bastante complicados. Sin embargo, el punto 2 más interesante que FXCM, en mi opinión. En caso de encontrar más defectos voy a por supuesto volver aquí y hacerle saber. Dbfx obtiene una calificación de 5 estrellas de (hasta ahora) porque su rendimiento es mucho mejor que lo esperado por encima de ser grande en términos absolutos Pronto Forex Trading Apps En pocas semanas, FXCM lanzará una tienda de aplicaciones de comercio de divisas con los indicadores personalizados y EAs Disponible para MT4 y la plataforma Trading Station Desktop. El sitio completo todavía no se ha lanzado, pero puede ingresar su correo electrónico para obtener la aplicación de 24-Hour Trend Locatorquot de forma gratuita antes de que se inicie el sitio oficial. Heres donde encontrarlo: fxcmapps / Hace unas semanas, mencioné que la FXCM App Store vendría pronto. Bueno, finalmente está aquí La tienda de aplicaciones lanzada esta semana, y está empezando con alrededor de 40 aplicaciones para MT4 incluyendo scripts, EAs y aplicaciones independientes. Esto es solo el comienzo, y planeamos lanzar más aplicaciones en los próximos meses para MT4, Trading Station y posiblemente otras plataformas. A continuación se presentan 3 aplicaciones que puede probar de forma gratuita, y hay más en el sitio web. Si tiene sugerencias para aplicaciones adicionales, por favor hágamelo saber, y le preguntaré al equipo de servicios de programación si pueden agregarse al sitio web. DailyFX PLUS Trading SignalsBreakout2 (Asesor experto) Aquellos de ustedes que utilizan DailyFX PLUS probablemente habrán oído hablar de Breakout2. Ahora puede automatizar la estrategia para ejecutar en MT4 en lugar de tener que visitar el sitio web para buscar actualizaciones y, a continuación, colocar manualmente los oficios en su plataforma. Breakout 2 es una de las seis estrategias de las clásicas señales de DailyFX. Está diseñado para funcionar mejor en condiciones de mercado en las que es probable que el precio se mueva a través de un nivel de soporte o resistencia identificado. Cuando esto ocurre, el volumen de operaciones y la volatilidad de los precios a menudo aumentan. Breakout2 intenta capitalizar estos aumentos recomendando comprar o vender en la dirección de la ruptura. Es probable que liberemos más de las estrategias de DailyFX PLUS para la automatización MT4, así que permanezca atento. Trend Identifier (Indicador) Este indicador es bastante auto-explicativo, e incorpora el indicador Aroon para la identificación de tendencias. El indicador muestra dos líneas: Aroon up, que mide la fuerza de la tendencia alcista, y Aroon abajo, que mide la fuerza de la tendencia bajista. Ambas líneas fluctúan entre valores de cero y 100, con valores cercanos a cero que representan una tendencia débil y valores cercanos a 100 que representan una tendencia fuerte. Compra rápida (secuencia de comandos) Esta aplicación te permite abrir operaciones en MT4 en un clic similar a cómo funciona un clic de comercio funciona en la plataforma de escritorio Trading Station. Incluso puede preestablecer sus niveles de stop-loss y take-profit. Todas estas aplicaciones se pueden utilizar en la plataforma MetaTrader 4 de FXCM, por lo que si está utilizando nuestro MT4, disfrute Si no, puede registrarse para una demo FXCM MT4. Y otra vez, déjeme saben, si usted tiene sugerencias para los nuevos EAs, escrituras, el etc. permanece atento para una app que le dejará compartir automáticamente sus oficios con sus amigos en Facebook y gorjeo. Outlook de la DailyFX lista las tendencias actuales de EUR / USD, USD / CHF y NZD / USD como Rango que probablemente no debe sorprender a ninguno de ustedes que han estado negociando estos pares en el pasado par de meses. Heres un vistazo a la lista de sesgo completa: Mientras que los rangos pueden no ser los mercados más emocionantes para el comercio, todavía pueden presentar oportunidades para los que son pacientes. La nueva tienda FXCMapps tiene un par de expertos asesores ideales para el comercio de gama, y uno de ellos es el RVI Range Trader que compra y vende basado en el Índice de Vigor Relativo. 24 de abr de 2012 4:10 pm Post 884 Todos los ojos en la Fed en medio de esperanzas Recuperación de EE. UU. puede compensar vientos globales globales Mañana tenemos la liberación de FOMC saliendo, y este es extra especial ya que Bernanke dará una conferencia de prensa después del lanzamiento. Heres lo que Ilya Spivak, DailyFX Currency Specialist tiene que decir al respecto. El foco se centra ahora en el anuncio de la política monetaria de la Reserva Federal que se debe el miércoles para una actualización en el otro lado de la ecuación. Los datos económicos de los Estados Unidos tienen cada vez más rendimiento que las expectativas desde la última sentada del comité de FOMC de fijación de políticas (según datos de Citigroup). Esto puede indicar que el ritmo de recuperación está de nuevo vacilante después de un fuerte comienzo de año, repitiendo escenarios similares en 2010 y 2011. Alternativamente, puede reflejar un retraso en las expectativas de los economistas para el crecimiento de EE. UU. en medio de signos de aceleración real. Un sondeo de analistas encuestados por Bloomberg sugiere que este último puede ser el caso. La previsión mediana para el crecimiento del PIB estadounidense en 2012 subió de 2,2 a 2,3 por ciento desde la última reunión de la Fed, con expectativas mejoradas para el primer, segundo y tercer trimestres. Para leer el artículo completo en DailyFX, haga clic aquí. Y para mantenerse en la parte superior del mercado de noticias en movimiento, ya que sucede, puede utilizar el DailyFX News Notifier. El indicador DailyFX News Notifier es el compañero perfecto para los comerciantes que no quieren ser sorprendidos por los anuncios económicos. Los anuncios que se muestran en la pantalla del DailyFX Economic Calendar aparecen en cualquier gráfico en el que se agrega el indicador, lo que le ayuda a mantenerse informado y tomar buenas decisiones comerciales. El libra esterlina Humble como el Reino Unido se desliza en la recesión doble-Dip Por Christopher Vecchio, analista de la modernidad La libra británica ha tenido un muy interesante últimos doce meses . El 28 de abril de 2011, el GBPUSD cotizaba a su máximo anual en 1,6745, pero dentro de seis meses, el par se había hundido a un nuevo mínimo anual en 1,5270 el 6 de octubre. Mientras que el GBPUSD volvió a negociar hacia 1,6000 en el otoño, 2012 fue rocoso para la libra esterlina, que vio el fregadero del cable a un punto bajo de dos años de 1.5234 el 13 de enero de 2012. Recientemente, sobre la parte posterior de datos económicos mejores que previstos, los encargados de formular políticas del Banco de Inglaterra comenzaron a alejarse de su neutral agregado No postura dovish. Adam Posen, una de las dos palomas restantes que pidió más flexibilización cuantitativa en el Comité de Política Monetaria, dejó caer su oferta por una política más flexible. Los comerciantes han tomado este cambio en el MPC como una señal de que las tasas pronto se elevará, y por lo tanto, han puja de la libra esterlina. El GBPUSD subió a un nuevo anualmente más alto en 1.6170 más temprano hoy en las esperanzas que la lectura del crecimiento del primer trimestre para el Reino Unido confirmaría la perspectiva de BoEs en lugar de otro, ahora parece que la economía británica ha sumergido de nuevo en una recesión, impulso. Si bien ha habido algunas mejoras en la economía británica en los últimos meses, la primera lectura de crecimiento preliminar trimestre no lo demuestra. En términos trimestrales, el crecimiento se contrajo un 0,2 por ciento después de contraerse un 0,3 por ciento en el cuarto trimestre de 2011 sobre una base anual, el crecimiento se mantuvo sin cambios en el primer trimestre tras crecer un 0,5 por ciento en el cuarto trimestre de 2011. Por supuesto, Importante de tomar nota de las previsiones de consenso, porque esas son las lecturas que ayudaron a impulsar la libra esterlina a nuevos máximos anuales frente al dólar de EE. UU.: el crecimiento trimestral se esperaba en 0,1 por ciento de crecimiento anual se esperaba en 0,3 por ciento. Al considerar el crecimiento de Reino Unido en relación con el de los Estados Unidos los últimos trimestres 3,0 por ciento anualizado en el cuarto trimestre de 2011 el panorama de crecimiento británico se ve aún más deprimente. Así, no sólo la economía se contrajo, el crecimiento fue mucho peor de lo que se esperaba. Mientras que la libra británica cayó a través del tablero en la liberación de los datos, la gran pregunta ahora es si o no el BoE reevaluará su perspectiva, y si o no ahora habrá otra inyección de la liquidez en los meses que vienen. Los datos recientes sobre la inflación y otros indicadores de la producción económica sugieren que es posible una mayor flexibilización. Dejando de lado el crecimiento general, la inflación ha sido el mayor problema para los responsables de formular políticas del BoE. Ciertamente las medidas de austeridad fiscal de los gobiernos han ayudado a aliviar las presiones sobre los precios, pero más allá de lo que ya se ha implementado, parece que la inflación no saldrá más lejos dado las medidas en su lugar. De hecho, después de que las presiones de precios de año a año alcanzaron un máximo de 5,2 por ciento en septiembre, cayeron a su nivel más bajo en febrero desde noviembre de 2010. Pero la inflación ya ha comenzado a recuperarse: el mismo indicador subió a 3,5 por ciento en marzo. Una perspectiva de inflación más alta es uno de los únicos impedimentos que el BoE tendrá para implementar más flexibilización. Más allá de los datos recientes sobre la inflación, los datos del comercio sugieren que el renovado atractivo de la libra esterlina durante los primeros meses de 2012 ha impedido las perspectivas de crecimiento económico. Aunque sólo se dispone de datos de enero y febrero, observamos que tanto en enero como en febrero el crecimiento de las importaciones superó el crecimiento de las exportaciones. De hecho, como las exportaciones cayeron un 2,0 por ciento en febrero, las importaciones aumentaron un 0,2 por ciento. Del mismo modo, mientras que las exportaciones cayeron un 0,6 por ciento en enero, las importaciones aumentaron un 1,4 por ciento. Considerando la actuación de Sterlings frente a los mayores socios comerciales de los King Kong en enero y febrero, los datos comerciales recientes son sorprendentes: la libra esterlina cayó 0,39 frente al euro en enero y febrero perdió 1,28 por ciento frente al franco suizo, Dólar estadounidense. Sin embargo, una libra más débil es exactamente lo que necesita la economía británica, especialmente frente al euro y al dólar estadounidense. Al impulsar aún más las exportaciones, más inversiones podrían ingresar al país para ayudar a los fabricantes a satisfacer la demanda extranjera de bienes británicos. Caso y punto: la producción industrial y manufacturera se contrajo 2,3% y 1,4%, respectivamente, en febrero. Con el crecimiento desacelerándose al punto en que la economía se tambalea al borde de una recesión de doble caída, queda por ver si el BoE se aferra a su retórica hawkish reciente. El día de ayer, el miembro del MPC David Miles dijo que su voto por más cantidad La relajación se ve justificada a la luz de los datos recientes y la lectura del crecimiento del primer trimestre sugiere que esto puede ser cierto. En consecuencia, es probable que el BoE retroceda lejos de su comentario hawkish reciente. La semana pasada, parecía que la libra esterlina estaba programada para ser una de las principales divisas más importantes durante la primera mitad del año, la libra esterlina es un poco más humilde, y también lo son los halcones de la BoE. Pronóstico: GBPUSD a 1.5600 a finales de junio Dos maneras probadas de negociar una zona de consolidación A menudo, después de que un par de divisas ha estado en una tendencia por un tiempo, comenzará a consolidarse o negociar en un rango. Un comerciante de la tendencia puede dejar de negociar el par hasta que comienza la tendencia de nuevo o pueden ajustar su estrategia comercial para que puedan utilizar lo que el mercado les está dando. El par de divisas NZDUSD está proporcionando al comerciante una zona de consolidación. Vamos a echar un vistazo al gráfico diario de la pareja de abajo El par se ha estado consolidando desde la primera semana de marzo. Durante la consolidación ha respetado un nivel de soporte de .8086 y un nivel de resistencia de .8281 un rango de 195 pips. Para un comerciante que estaría interesado en el comercio de la pareja mientras está en el rango, podrían comprar el par cuando se está negociando muy cerca de soporte y colocar una parada por debajo de la mecha más baja fuera de la gama. Si el par continúa su patrón de negociar para arriba de la ayuda, el comerciante podría fijar un límite o cerca de la tapa de la gama para salir el comercio provechoso. Cuando el par se está negociando muy cerca de la parte superior de la gama en la resistencia, un comerciante podría cortar el par con una parada justo por encima de la mecha más alta fuera de la gama. Si la acción del precio continúa negociando abajo de la resistencia, el comerciante podría fijar un límite o cerca del fondo de la gama para salir el comercio provechoso. Puesto que esta zona de la consolidación apenas apenas sobre el 200 período SMA. No hay realmente un sesgo de comercio fuerte ya sea a la alza o la desventaja en este par. Una clave para recordar en el comercio de rango no es entrar en un comercio, mientras que la acción de precio está en el medio de la gama. Cuando el precio está en el medio, el comerciante pierde el borde de qué manera el par es más probable que se mueva. Además, con el precio en el centro de la gama, la colocación de la parada será una mayor distancia de la entrada, asumiendo así una mayor cantidad de riesgo. Debemos recordar que una zona de consolidación puede terminar en cualquier momento. El precio puede desglosarse de esa zona / rango en cualquier momento. Por esta razón, es imperativo que las paradas de protección se establezcan en un comercio en todo momento. Hablando de rupturas, cuando eso ocurre, aquí es cómo un comerciante puede manejar Si el precio simplemente rompe por encima / por debajo de la zona, un comerciante muy agresivo puede optar por entrar en ese punto. Una ruptura al alza significaría que un comerciante tomaría una posición larga (compra) con una parada debajo de la parte inferior de la gama. Sin embargo, como se puede ver en la tabla, hay varios puntos donde el precio se rompió fuera de la gama, por encima y por debajo de ella, y luego se trasladó de nuevo dentro de la gama antes de la vela diaria cerrada. En otras palabras precio malo por encima / por debajo del rango. En cada uno de estos casos el comerciante agresivo que entró en esas señales de entrada o bien habría sido detenido o tuvo que soportar fuertes movimientos contra su posición. Una forma más conservadora de intercambiar una ruptura sería detener la entrada en el comercio hasta que una vela se cierra fuera de la zona. Una vela que se cierra fuera de la gama (donde el cuerpo de la vela permanece fuera de la gama en lugar de simplemente wicking fuera de la gama) indicará una mayor probabilidad de que el comercio seguirá moviéndose en la dirección de la ruptura. Para todos los interesados en el comercio de gama, quería poner de relieve un nuevo asesor experto llamado el ciclista Range Trader. El comerciante de gama cíclica EA compra y vende dependiendo del valor del indicador CCI. El indicador CCI (Commodity Channel Index) se utiliza para localizar las condiciones de sobrecompra y sobreventa, identificar nuevas tendencias y advertir sobre condiciones extremas. Mide el nivel de precios actual en relación con un nivel de precio medio durante un período de tiempo dado. Negociación del Banco de Reserva de Australia Decisión de Tasa de Interés Negociando las noticias: Banco de Reserva de Australia Tasa de interés Decisión Tiempo de lanzamiento: 01/05/2012 4:30 GMT, 0:30 EDT Primaria Importante: Se espera que el Banco de Reserva de Australia reduzca la tasa de interés de referencia en 25 pb a 4,00 en mayo, y podemos ver que el banco central lleva a cabo Su ciclo de relajación a lo largo de 2012 en un esfuerzo por combatir la desaceleración de la recuperación. Según los swaps de índices overnight de Credit Suisse, los participantes en el mercado ven los costos de los préstamos en más de 100 pb en los próximos 12 meses, y la RBA puede embarcarse en una serie de recortes de tasas en la segunda mitad del año como la perspectiva fundamental para La economía 1T se deteriora. Evolución Económica Reciente El aumento del consumo del sector privado, junto con el salto en el empleo, puede permitir que el RBA preserve su enfoque de esperar y ver, y el desarrollo puede producir una recuperación en el AUDUSD, Costes. Sin embargo, el alivio de las presiones sobre los precios junto con la menor tasa de crecimiento puede alentar al banco central a apoyar aún más la economía en crisis, y podemos ver que el gobernador Glenn Stevens huelga una perspectiva muy paliativa para la política monetaria. En la estructura abarcadora ve el AUDUSD rompiendo por encima de la confluencia de la resistencia del canal que se remonta al 6 de marzo, el promedio móvil de 200 días, y el retroceso de 50 Fibonacci del avance de diciembre en 1.0360 la semana pasada antes de encontrar resistencia en la convergencia del retroceso 38.2 Y el promedio móvil de 50 días en 1.0475. Vamos a reservar este nivel como nuestro límite de topside que si se rompe cambia nuestro enfoque a objetivos de resistencia subsecuentes. El soporte clave ahora descansa en 1.0360 respaldado por el retroceso 61.8 en 1.0240. El gráfico del cuero cabelludo muestra el comercio australiano dentro de los confines de una formación de canal ascendente después de romper brevemente la resistencia del canal el viernes. Una ruptura por debajo de esta formación observa objetivos provisionales de soporte en la extensión 61.8 Fibonacci tomada de los canales del 10 y 24 de abril en 1.0385 respaldada por la extensión 50 en 1.0360 y la extensión 38.2 en 1.0330. Una ruptura por debajo de la cifra de 1.03 riesgos de pérdidas sustanciales con tal escenario mirando soporte blando en 1.0275 y el mínimo del 24 de abril en 1.0246 con un movimiento por debajo del mínimo de 2012 en 1.0225 cambiando nuestro enfoque de manera más agresiva a la parte corta. La resistencia provisional se mantiene con la extensión de 78,6 a 1,0424 respaldada por 1,0450 y la máxima de abril a 1,0472. Si la impresión solicita una respuesta bajista mirar a los niveles de desventaja objetivo con sólo una brecha por encima de la alta de abril negando nuestro sesgo. Las previsiones para un recorte de tasas de 25 pb ciertamente inculcan una perspectiva bajista para la moneda de alto rendimiento, pero la decisión de la tasa puede fomentar un comercio AUDUSD largo si el RBA preservar su esperar-y-ver enfoque en mayo. Por lo tanto, si el banco central mantiene la tasa de interés de referencia en 4,25, necesitaremos una vela verde de cinco minutos después del anuncio para establecer una entrada de compra en dos lotes de AUDUSD. Una vez que se cumplan estas condiciones, pondremos la parada inicial en el columpio cercano o una distancia razonable de la entrada, y este riesgo generará nuestro objetivo inicial. El segundo objetivo se basará en la discreción, y vamos a mover la parada en el segundo lote de costo una vez que el primer comercio golpea su marca en un esfuerzo por preservar nuestras ganancias. Por otro lado, el RBA puede sonar cada vez más perverso esta vez como tomadores de decisiones toman nota de la desaceleración de la recuperación, y podemos ver el banco central adoptar un enfoque más agresivo en estimular la economía enferma como el crecimiento y la inflación vacilan. Como resultado, si la RBA bajar la tasa clave a 4,00 y resaltar los recortes de tasas adicionales para los próximos meses, vamos a llevar a cabo la misma estrategia para un comercio corto dólar australiano como la posición larga establecido anteriormente, justo en la dirección opuesta . Como se esperaba, el Banco de la Reserva de Australia mantuvo la tasa de interés de referencia en 4,25, pero mantuvo la puerta abierta para facilitar la política monetaria a medida que la Junta juzgó el ritmo de crecimiento del producto Para ser algo inferior a lo estimado anteriormente. El dovish hecho golpeado por el RBA arrastró en el dólar australiano, con el AUDUSD que se deslizaba detrás debajo de 1.0400, y la moneda de alto rendimiento continuó perdiendo la tierra durante todo el día mientras que el par cerró en 1.0329. --- Escrito por David Song, analista de divisas y Michael Boutros, Estratega de divisas en DailyFX Y para mantenerse en la cima de las noticias en movimiento del mercado, ya que sucede, puede utilizar el Notifier DailyFX. El indicador DailyFX News Notifier es el compañero perfecto para los comerciantes que no quieren ser sorprendidos por los anuncios económicos. Los anuncios que se muestran en la pantalla del DailyFX Economic Calendar aparecen en cualquier gráfico en el que se agrega el indicador, lo que le ayuda a mantenerse informado y tomar buenas decisiones comerciales. Haga clic aquí para descargar el Notifier DailyFX News para MetaTrader 4 en FXCMapps 4 de mayo de 2012 9:40 am Post 890 Srta. Grande en EE. UU. Abril NonFarm nómina Contratación Pares Riesgo Apetito EL TAKEAWAY: EE. UU. NFP contratación en abril subió menos de lo esperado, segundo mes de desaceleración La tasa de desempleo cae ligeramente gt preocupaciones La economía de EE. UU. podría perder impulso gt ganancias de USD vs AUD La contratación en los EE. UU. en abril fue muy decepcionante, como el aumento de las nóminas no agrícolas cayó por segundo mes consecutivo. La Oficina de Estadísticas Laborales de Estados Unidos (BLS) informó hoy que los empleados agregaron 115.000 trabajadores a sus nóminas en abril, a partir de la cifra revisada de marzo de 154.000, que fue revisada al alza de su impresión original de 120.000. La previsión media de 85 economistas encuestados por Bloomberg News había solicitado un aumento de 160.000. Private payrolls rose by 130,000 in April, down from 166,000 in March, while manufacturing added 16,000 jobs compared to 41,000 jobs a month ago. Employment increased in professional and business services, retail trade and health care, but fell in transportation and warehousing. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell slightly in April to its lowest level since January 2009, declining to 8.1 percent from 8.2 percent the previous month. The drop in jobless rate was due to a continuing decline in the participation rate. The large miss in NFP fueled concerns that the U. S. economy could be losing momentum, dampening hopes that a stretch of strong winter hiring had signaled a turning point for the economic recovery. The NFP print follows on the back of a disappointing rise in employment in April, according to the ADPs national employment report that was released on Wednesday. Following the data release, the greenback initially weakened against most of its major currency peers. However, the U. S. dollar quickly reversed its losses against the higher-yielding currencies as the weaker employment figures weighed on risk sentiment and sent investors back to the reserve currency. After an initial dip, the U. S. dollar rose as much as 25 pips against the Australian dollar, and at the time of the report, the AUDUSD pair was trading at 1.0224. --- Written by Tzu-Wen Chen at DailyFX NEXT EVENT TO WATCH French Elections to be held on Sunday It is highly likely that the French elections will impact the Euro, but over the medium - and long-term, not necessarily the day after the results are announced. French President Sarkozy is out of touch with the French people, an increasingly disgruntled populous becoming more averse to helping saving the notion of a broader Euro-zone. Case and point: Marine Le Pen, the president of Front National (FN), a far-right nationalist party, garnered approximately 18 percent of the vote during the first round of the French elections. Leading challenger Socialist Francois Hollandes general platform differs greatly from that of Ms. Le Pen but they share one commonality: they both oppose how President Sarkozy has handled the European sovereign debt crisis. In fact, Mr. Hollande has sworn to renegotiate the European Union Fiscal Compact. He has also said that its time to concentrate on growth rather than austerity as if economic growth in the current environment is that simple or was overlooked entirely the past few months. If Mr. Hollande moves to repeal austerity measures and in the process frays Frances relationship with Germany, market participants will be hamstrung by political war games with the Euro as the collateral damage. Confidence would be lost in the Euro-zones core and leadership bond yields will rise across the region and the European Central Bank will be forced to act and if they dont, the crisis could worsen. The international community (mainly via the International Monetary Fund) has been reticent in offering up a significant package of support, and I believe were done seeing more contributions to the save Europe fund (loosely quoting Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty). A Euro-zone without political leadership in union or support from a supranational agency, a crisis of confidence in the Euro-zone stoked by a difficult Mr. Hollande would easily sink the EURUSD below 1.2000. --- Written by Christopher Vecchio at DailyFX And to stay on top of market moving news as it happens, you can use the DailyFX News Notifier. The DailyFX News Notifier indicator is the perfect companion for traders who do not want to be caught off guard by economic announcements. The announcements that are shown on the DailyFX Economic Calendar display on any chart where the indicator is added, helping you stay informed and make sound trading decisions. Click here to download the DailyFX News Notifier for MetaTrader 4 at FXCMapps May 9, 2012 1:50pm Post 891 AUDUSD: Trading Australias Employment Report Trading the News: Australia Employment Change Time of release: 05/10/2012 1:30 GMT, 21:30 EDT Primary Pair Impact: AUDUSD Expected: -5.0K Previous: 44.0K DailyFX Forecast: -20.0K to 5.0K Why Is This Event Important: Australia is expected to shed 5.0K jobs in April following the 44.0K expansion during the previous month, and the slowdown in the labor market may drag on the exchange rate as it dampens the outlook for the 1T economy. Indeed, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its forecast for growth and inflation as the central bank expected job growth to remain subdued, and it seems as though the central bank will carry its easing cycle into the second-half of the year in an effort to encourage a sustainable recovery. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, market participants still see the benchmark interest rate falling by nearly 100bp over the next 12-months, and we may see the RBA take a more aggressive approach in addressing the risks surrounding the region as the fundamental outlook for the world economy remains clouded with high uncertainty. Recent Economic Developments The ongoing improvement in business confidence paired with the expansion in private sector consumption certainly bodes well for hiring, and a positive jobs report may push the AUDUSD back above the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement from the 2010 low to the 2011 high around 1.0350-60 as it dampens expectations for lower borrowing costs. However, the persistent slack in the real economy paired with the slowdown in world trade may lead businesses to scale back on employment, and a marked drop in job growth would heighten expectations for another rate cut as the RBA maintains a cautious tone for the region. In turn, we may see the AUDUSD continue to give back the rebound from 2011, and the pair may fall back towards the 38.2 Fib around 0.9930-50 as market participants look for a series of rate cuts from the RBA. Potential Price Targets For The Release A look at the encompassing structure sees the AUDUSD trading within the confines of a descending channel formation dating back to the February 29th high with the pair rebounding off of channel support in early US trade. The aussie is at critical levels here with a break below parity risking accelerated losses for the high yielder. Daily resistance now stands at the 78.6 Fibonacci retracement taken from the December advance and is backed by the January low at 1.0140. Our scalp chart shows the pair trading within the confines of an embedded descending channel formation with the rebound off channel support reinforcing the price action seen on the daily chart above. Soft interim support rests at 1.0020 backed by the 61.8 Fibonacci extension taken from the April 27th and May 7th crests at 1.0006. Interim topside resistance stands at the 50 extension at 1.0050 with a likely break here eyeing subsequent ceilings at the 38.2 extension at 1.0090 and 1.0115. Should the print prompt a bearish response look to target downside levels with a break below channel support offering further conviction on our directional bias. Such a scenario eyes downside targets at 9980, the 78.6 extension at 9950 and 9920. Expectations for a drop in employment certainly casts a bearish outlook for the high-yielding currency, but a positive development could pave the way for a long Australian dollar trade as it dampens expectations for another rate cut. Therefore, if the region unexpectedly adds more jobs in April, we will need to see a green, five-minute candle following the release to generate buy entry on two-lots of AUDUSD. Once these conditions are met, we will set the initial stop at the nearby swing low or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will establish our first objective. The second target will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to cost once the first trade reaches its mark in order to protect our winnings. In contrast, the slowing recovery in Australia paired with decline in global trade casts a dour outlook for the labor market, and a dismal print could trigger a sharp selloff in the exchange rate as market participants expect to see a series of rate cuts from the RBA. As a result, if employment contracts 5.0K or greater from the previous month, we will carry out the same strategy for a short aussie-dollar trade as the long position laid out above, just in the opposite direction. Impact that the change in Australia Employment has had on AUD during the last month March 2012 Australia Employment Employment in Australia jumped 44.0K following the 15.4K contraction February, while the jobless rate held at 5.2 for the second consecutive month in March. Indeed, the better-than-expected print propped up the Australian dollar, with the AUDNZD climbing back above 1.0350, and the high-yielding currency continued to gain ground throughout the day as the exchange rate closed at 1.0439. And to stay on top of market moving news as it happens, you can use the DailyFX News Notifier. The DailyFX News Notifier indicator is the perfect companion for traders who do not want to be caught off guard by economic announcements. The announcements that are shown on the DailyFX Economic Calendar display on any chart where the indicator is added, helping you stay informed and make sound trading decisions. Click here to download the DailyFX News Notifier for MetaTrader 4 at FXCMapps Can the Facebook IPO Revive Equities and Torpedo the US Dollar Whether youre a user or not, you no doubt know of Facebook. The social networking service is visited by an estimated 900 million active users per month and is a cultural phenomenon. Can we expect another, more unusual miracle from the tech giant Can the companys IPO help lift the general sentiment and the broader equities market We will discuss how this event could potentially alter the course of market itself and how through risk trend connections it could thereby sabotage the impressive run of the US dollar this month. What is Facebook First some background on the event itself. Though often discussed in both social (for the number of friends you have) and financial circles (for its questionable revenue stream), our interests lie in the grandeur of the Facebook IPO. With an expected 38 listed share price and expected 421 million shares expected to be released into the market, this approximate 16 billion initial public offering would be the third largest ever. Furthermore, with the sale and pricing, the firm would have a theoretical market capitalization just north of 100 billion. By any measurement, this is a massive undertaking. Why Does a Facebook IPO Matter It is in the sheer size of this event that the broader market influence can be read. Over the past three months, the backdrop of investor sentiment has slowly begun to deteriorate. With the collective expectations of slower global growth, a rise of financial troubles in the Euro Zone (Greece is a typical headline for any given week) and dependency on stimulus growing painfully obvious, the optimism that has guided the markets since March of 2009 looks to have met a critical tipping point . Just over the past week, a passive shift in the balance of sentiment has taken a more active pace in outright selling that has driven the benchmark SampP 500 to three month lows and into its most convincing bear trend since August of last year (see the chart below). The wave of fundamental encouragement this move has mustered suggests this is a drive that could turn into a lasting and meaningful trend. A dire situation like this can be turned by few things. One such catalyst over the past few years is the hope for further stimulus and quantitative easing. The other could be a big-ticket event like this that draws in a much-needed shot of capital investment bolstering fellow sector members and perhaps even the underlying market. The Market Impact To understand the impact, we should walk through the scenarios for impact. Having already suffered a significant drop, capital markets may find themselves somewhat exhausted and looking for a catalyst to spur a relief rally whether it eventually turns out a correction or true trend reversal is likely beyond the scope of this event itself. With the 11:00 AM EST listing, the influx of capital and likely rally in share price could lift other industry competitors such as investor and hedge fund-favorite Apple. Such a boost against the belief that a correction is overdue could play as a spark for a pre-existing bias. Alternatively, this historic event for the equity market could lose its fight against the markets prevailing fear. If, for example, another jolt of fear is leveraged by the European financial crisis or the realization that the Fed wont rush to the markets rescue in this current decline the masses may ignore the temporary distraction. If there is no bounce to unload, then you sell at market. Though this is a very unique event, a parallel of influence can be made to the Google IPO back on August 19th, 2004. The day of the 1.67 billion offering itself did not offer immediate lift, but the lead up to the sale saw a significant change in direction (see the SampP 500 chart below). There are no doubt many factors that went into this tide shift, but the expectation of the event buoyed the market outlook. The Currency Impact If we can make the case for a meaningful shift in equities, it is an easy step to a heavy FX market influence. The balance of risk and reward is fundamental to every trade made. However, the sensitivity of different assets / currencies to the oscillation between fear and greed can vary. That said, when everything that is considered a safe haven rises and everything with any connection to higher yield (and thereby risk) sinks, we have an overwhelming sign that wholesale risk aversion is driving the markets. That seems to be the case currently as stocks, speculative commodities and high-yielding currencies are all dropping while the US dollar and Treasuries (the accepted harbor for all financial storms) advance. You can see this relationship playing out in the chart below since 2008 and showing particularly strong correlation just over this past month. Therefore, if the SampP 500 garners a positive vibe from the Facebook IPO (capitalizing on the need for a correction), the positive sentiment drive could prove an equal weight to the safe haven US dollar. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index happens to find itself in a very sensitive position as well (see the chart below). Having just breached 16-month highs this week, follow through is a tenuous bearing. It requires further encouragement. A positive drive for capital markets spurred by an influential catalyst could sabotage the fledgling move. The risk of volatility to equities and the dollar can be applied to particularly risk-sensitive currency pairs. Below we see the correlation between the carry-intensive AUDUSD currency pair and the benchmark SampP 500 Index. This connection to a common fundamental driver (risk appetite trends) means that a sudden shift (or amplification of the prevailing trend) could spur both stock activity and capital flow in the carry trade intensive pairs. The impact could prove just as significant for a more stalwart currency pair. EURUSD doesnt have the attachments to yield income that its Australian counterpart does, but recent doubts over the financial health of the Euro-area have undermined the shared currencys competition reserve status to the greenback. Therefore, reprieve would offer the batter euro a much needed rebound. That said, if the IPO proves a volatility inducement without an optimistic cut, the catalyst could prove painful for this FX benchmark. One last thing to consider: though the IPO itself happens very quickly, the impact on the markets could play out over a longer period of time. Post-IPO stock reactions often see immediate volatility as the regular investors plow in, there is a period of accumulation and then early adopters look to take profit resulting in a pullback. To tap into the underlying sense of risk appetite trend (a weighty market state), this event has to truly impress (for better or worse) and work with sentiment that is already inherent in the market. For that reason, we can have an extended impact from this event but its true influence is as a catalyst rather than the momentum. Weve had a lot of traders ask for a way to easily share trades on Twitter and Facebook. FXCMs Programming Services team has created a free app now available in the app store called Trade with Friends . The app will give you the option to automatically share your trades on Facebook and Twitter to discuss with friends or other traders. Below is a screenshot of what the post will look like on Facebook and Twitter: Heres a quick guide on how to setup the app to share your trades. Step 1. Installation and Login a. Click here to install Trade with Friends from FXCMapps. When you land on the page, click the Purchase button at the top right. The app is free, but you still need to click on quotpurchasequot to go through the quick app store process to access the download file. The installation works like other programs you have probably installed on your computer where you double click on the. exe file and go through the installation window that appears. segundo. After completing the installation, double-click on the Trade with Friends icon on your desktop and enter your account login details. You will need an FXCM account login. If you dont have one yet, you can click here to register a free practice account. If you look in the screenshot below, you will see what the Trade With Friends icon looks like on the left, and the actual program on the right once it has opened. Step 2. Connecting to Facebook and Twitter At the top left of the Trade with Friends app, click on Login and select Twitter. After selecting Twitter, an authorization box will appear for you to login to twitter. FXCM is not able to see your twitter password when you give authorization. The below screenshot shows buttons to click on and what will appear. The same steps are used to authorize Facebook, but you would click on Login gt Facebook instead. Please note: While FXCM keeps all of your trading information private, FXCMs privacy policy may not fully apply to clients exposing their own information publicly. Trade With Friends app allows you to broadcast your trading details. Users of this app make their own judgment about how much information and to whom they wish to share it with. Lack of proper privacy controls can share information to unwanted individuals and/or parties. Please feel free to reply with any questions about setting up the app, and I would appreciate any feedback you have about the app. Jun 12, 2012 4:54pm Post 901 Scalping EURUSD Ahead Of Greek Elections - Range Trades In Play While price action this week has failed to offer clear conviction on a directional bias, the sideways price action across the major currencies presents range trading opportunities for intra-day scalps. The single currency remains at risk amid a steady stream of headlines out of Europe with this weekends Greek elections likely to offer further clarity on a timeframe for a possible exit of the euro. Its important to note that although the broader trend continues to favor further losses, seasonality trends may continue to see the euro remain rather supported after making its yearly low on the first trading day in June. Note that last month the pair made its highs on May 1st before making its monthly low on the May 31st. That said, the lows made on June 1st at 1.2287 remain paramount for the euro with a break below risking substantial losses. A look at the encompassing structure sees the euro trading within the confines of a broad descending channel formation dating back to August 29th with the single currency now trading within an embedded descending channel formation dating back to the May highs. Interim daily support (on a close basis) rests with the 61.8 Fibonacci extension taken from the October and February highs at 1.2485 and is backed by the soft support at 1.2330 and the 78.6 extension at 1.2215. Key resistance stands at the confluence of the January low at 1.2623 and channel resistance with a breach above the 50 extension at 1.2675 risking a more substantial topside correction. Such a scenario eyes daily targets at the May 21st high at 1.2823 and the 38.2 extension at 1.2865. Note that the daily RSI continues to hold below trendline resistance dating back to the February highs, with a breach above this level dispelling further downside pressure in the interim. Our scalp chart shows the EUR/USD holding just above the 50 Fibonacci retracement taken for the June 1st low at 1.2475 with a break below this level eying subsequent support targets at 1.2455, the 61.8 retracement at 1.2430 and our bottom limit at the 1.24-figure. A move below this level offers further conviction on our directional bias with such a scenario eyeing extended break targets at the 78.6 retracement at 1.2370, 1.2320, and the 2012 lows made back on the first of the month at 1.2287. Interim resistance stands at the 61.8 extension at 1.2520 backed by 1.2555, the 23.6 retracement at 1.2580 and our topside limit at the January low at 1.2622. A daily close above this level shifts our focus higher with topside targets seen at the monthly highs at 1.2665 and the 1.27-handle. A daily average true range of 124pips yields profit targets of 24-26 pips depending on entry. Should ATR pull back dramatically, adjust profit targets as needed to ensure more feasible scalps. Note that as markets remain range bound, look for broader market sentiment and RSI conviction to identify intra-day biases with a confirmed break below 1.2475 or a breach above 1.2520 triggering initial scalps. Its extremely important in these market conditions to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session amp hourly basis offering further clarity. We will remain flexible with our bias with a break above our topside limit at 1.2622 eying subsequenttopside targets. Join Michael on Thursday morning for a Live Scalping Webinar at 1400GMT (10ET) to cover this scalp and more. For more information on his strategy, refer to Michaels Introduction to Scalping for Beginners Webinar . Jun 15, 2012 1:47pm Post 903 Caution: Greek Elections Could Spur Immense Volatility, Euro Outlook Unc CAUTION: Uncertain Landscape ahead due to Greek Elections Warrants Reduced Leverage Greece is headed back to the polls this weekend following the inconclusive results of the May 6 parliamentary elections. Unlike the first elections, the June 17 elections have significant consequences tied to it that will likely result in exceptional market volatility. With the significant event risk expected to occur during hours FXCMs trading platform is offline (17:00 EDT / 21:00 GMT on Friday to 17:00 EDT / 21:00 GMT on Sunday), Sundays open poses the threat of not only a significant gap, but spreads wider than usual as well. Accordingly, we believe that this is not the trading landscape to speculate, and we suggest reducing position sizes given the significant amount of uncertainty forthcoming. To help traders make the best informed decision headed into the weekends critical event, please find below a concise summary of the likely outcomes of the Greek parliamentary elections, and for those interested, a fact sheet on each of the main parties competing in the Greek elections. THE TAKEAWAY: June 17 Greek Parliamentary Elections gt Outcome Could Determine Greeces Fate in Euro-zone There are two main parties vying for control of Greeces government this weekend, the pro-bailout New Democracy party and the anti-bailout Syriza party. In a sense, and especially given the rhetoric deployed by non-Greek European leaders, these elections will determine the fate of Greeces inclusion in the Euro-zone. It boils down to this: a vote for New Democracy is considered pro-Euro and a vote for Syriza is considered anti-Euro. We believe there are four likely outcomes to these elections, with the highest probability of a Euro-negative outcome this weekend. They are: SCENARIO 1: New Democracy wins elections and has parliamentary majority (gt 151 votes) EUR BULLISH 10 SCENARIO 2: New Democracy wins elections but does not have majority EUR BEARISH (least bearish outcome) 45 SCENARIO 3: Syriza wins elections but does not have majority EUR BEARISH (increasingly bearish outcome) 40 SCENARIO 4: Syriza wins elections and has parliamentary majority EUR BEARISH (most bearish outcome) 5 In light of these expected outcomes, we find it most likely that the elections will not yield the most bullish outcome (scenario 1), but instead, falling somewhere between the least bearish and moderately bearish outcomes (scenario 2, 3). We have derived these probabilities from recent poll figures as well as commentaries from citizens and reporters in Greece. Recent Poll Numbers Public Issue . one of the leading opinion companies in Greece, carried out a phone opinion survey from May 25-30 across a general population sample of 1210 adults from across Greece. The results estimated 31.5 support for Syriza . 25.5 for New Democracy . 13.5 for Pasok, 7.5 for Dimar. Compared to poll results from the week prior, support for Syriza had risen 1.5 (from 30), fallen 0.5 (from 26) for ND and fallen 2 (from 15.5) for Pasok. The margin of error was /-2.8 percentage points. Kapa Research SA surveyed 1012 people for the Athens-based Ta Nea newpaper, in a poll conducted from May 29 to 31. The results estimated 26.1 support for New Democracy . 23.6 for Syriza and 9.9 for Pasok. Compared the last poll held on May 23-24, support for ND rose 0.3 (from 25.8), rose 3.5 (from 20.1) for Syriza, and fell 3.1 for Pasok (from 13). The overall margin of error is /-3.1 percentage points. A Rass poll conducted for Eleftheros Typos showed 26.5 support for New Democracy . 24.2 for Syriza and 9.9 for Pasok. For those interested in learning more about each of the main parties competing in the Greek elections on June 17, please find below a summary of New Democracys then Syrizas platforms. New Democracy Platform Points - Scale back taxes and boost jobs as part of an overall renegotiation of the countrys debt deal with its international creditors - Replace some taxes, such as a property tax introduced last fall, with fairer levies - Revoke cuts to lowlevel pensions and to the salaries of police and air force employees, as well as boost the job market - Support low income households and small businesses that have been hit hardest by the debt crisis - Help indebted households to repay their dues to banks - Accelerate structural reforms and the privatization program, with the rebirth of the public sector with no mass layoffs of civil servants - In regards to the 11.7 billion in public spending cuts that Greeces creditors have demanded by the end of 2013, ND (Samaras) said these should be made gradually over the next four years - Declaration of exclusive economic zones in the sea to exploit natural resources. - Enforce a harsh line against illegal immigration Syriza Platform Points - Creation of a shield to protect society against the crisis - Unconditional guaranteed minimum income or unemployment benefit, medical care, social protection, housing and access to all services of public utilities for all citizens - Protection of and relief measures for indebted households - Price controls and price reductions, VAT reduction, and abolition of VAT on basicneed goods - Disposal of the debt burden, specifically through: - Moratorium on debt servicing - Negotiations for debt cancellation - Regulation of remaining debt to include provisions for economic development and employment - European regulations on the debt of European states - Radical changes to the European Central Banks role - Prohibition of speculative banking products - A pan-European tax on wealth, financial transactions and profits - Income redistribution, taxation on wealth and elimination of unnecessary expenses - Productive social and environmental reconstruction - Nationalization/socialization of banks - Stable employment with decent wages and social insurance - Deepening Democracy: democratic political and social rights for all - Restoration of a strong welfare state - Immediate rescue of the pension system - A rise in unemployment benefits - The introduction of a guaranteed minimum income. Diverse fragmentary reforms and policies must be united in a national system of guaranteed funds from the national budget. An unconditional basic income, accomodation with heating, electricity and telecommunications, food and clothing, transport, help at home, legal coverage and representation can thus become rights of all citizens. - Free health care, which will be financed through a Public Health System - Protection of public education, research, cultures, and sports from the Memorandums policies - An independent foreign policy committed to the promotion of peace - Peace-seeking foreign policy - Disengagement from NATO and closure of foreign military bases on Greek soil - Aiding the Cypriot people in the reunification of the island Jun 18, 2012 1:22pm Post 904 EURUSD Falls Back Below 1.26 as Spanish Yields Soar - Dollar Shortage Seen in 2 Trillion Gap Bloomberg - Euro Chiefs Signal Greek Austerity Softening as Summit Looms Bloomberg - Egypt Islamists Claim Presidency as Army Tightens Grip Reuters - Greeces Conservatives Start Coalition Talks WSJ - Spanish Yields Surge Greek Relief Wanes WSJ Asian/European Session Summary The Greek elections yielded the somewhat surprising result of a strong New Democracy victory, with the pro-bailout party garnering enough votes to be in the position to form a coalition government with the other major pro-bailout party, PASOK. Should this materialize, it will keep the anti-bailout party Syriza on the sidelines as the main opposition, but that is only likely to last for so long. Early reports indicate that PASOK will not form a coalition government without the inclusion of Syriza, whose leader Alexis Tsipras has already stated that his party will not be joining New Democracy in a grand coalition of sorts. On a bit of speculation about how this Greek drama will unfold, as a politician, Mr. Tsipras is playing his cards well, as he appears to be in the game for the long haul. Thats to say that if Syriza were to have won yesterday, it would have only been by a razor-thin margin, one that would have likely deteriorated quickly should Greece have needed another bailout under his watch (they will in about a months time). On the other hand, with a strong showing, Syriza is now primed to garner majority support in a few months when Greeks return to the polls (assuming New Democracy and PASOK form a government), as the center coalition wont do anything to materially change Greeces projected path out of the Euro-zone. As the Greek election results have been digested, its now clear that G20 leaders wont unveil the nuclear option of flooding the markets with a few hundred billion dollars of liquidity to ensure price stability in the coming days. This was much of the reason markets rallied at the tail end of last week, and without the promise of more easing, much of the gusto behind the US Dollars decline has been quelled. This snap back to reality after the election has dragged the EURUSD from its highest level in three-weeks at 1.2747 to back under 1.2600 just ahead of the US cash equity open. Primarily, with no easing on the way, investors have dumped Spanish debt en masse, with the 10-year note yield surging today to as high as 7.285, after opening at 6.840. These are the highest yields the Spanish 10-year note has seen since late-April 1997. On the shorter-end of the yield curve, the Spanish 2-year note yield climbed as high as 5.592, its highest level since late-November 2011. Taking a look at other European credit, Italian debt is under pressure as well, with 10-year notes yielding 6.057, at the time this report was written, after rising to 6.173 earlier in the day. The 10-year note yield topped on June 14, when it hit 6.342. On the shorter-end of the curve, Italian 2-year notes rose by 18.9-basis points to a 4.522 yield. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars lead on the day, appreciating against the US Dollar by 0.22 percent and 0.34 percent, respectively. The Canadian Dollar is the worst performer, losing 0.42 percent against the US Dollar. After appreciating by as much as 0.88 percent, the EURUSD was trading 0.31 percent lower, at the time this report was written. The USDJPY was slightly firmer, gaining 0.22 percent on Monday thus far. Thus far, on Monday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is trading higher, at 10096.63 at the time this report was written, after opening at 10060.99 (the index closed at 10072.32 on Friday). The index has traded mostly higher, with the high at 10111.05 and the low at 10060.88. Jun 19, 2012 12:27pm Post 905 US Dollar Sell-off Continues Ahead of FOMC as Spanish Yields Drop - Austerity Doesnt Pay as Debt Markets Ignore Rating Cuts Bloomberg - Fiscal-Cliff Concerns Hurting Economy as Companies Hold Back Bloomberg - Europe Steps Away from the Edge Will FOMC Ease Anyway DailyFX - Greek Clash with Germany on Bailout Looms WSJ - Greek Parties Continue Coalition Talks WSJ Asian/European Session Summary Market participants are lining up for more cheap credit from the Federal Reserve days before the Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary policy on Wednesday. Despite mostly disappointing data from across the globe, led by a severely disappointing German ZEW Survey for June, investors have shaken off economic concerns in anticipation of an announcement of another major Fed easing package. The German ZEW Survey showed that German investor confidence plunged by the most since 1998 as the Euro-zones debt woes have trimmed economic growth prospects for the coming months. Regardless of the outcome of the debt crisis, the region is indeed headed for a steep recession. Staying with Europe, the Spanish Treasury was selling shorter-term dated debt this morning, and the results were far from sanguine. 2.4 billion of 12-month bills were sold at an average rate of 5.074, well-above the 2.985 rate paid on May 14. Similarly, the 639.3 million of 18-month debt sold at 5.107 percent, well-above the 3.302 yield paid in May. Despite these terrible figures a clear sign that borrowing costs are rising sharply and that a bailout will be necessary soon if relief does not come Spanish yields have improved across the spectrum: the 10-year note yield dropped by 10.4-basis points to 6.971, while the 2-year note yield fell to 5.169. Largely speaking, the progress made by peripheral debt can be attributed to two hopes: first that the European Union will give leeway to Greece and work more closely for a mutually acceptable political path and that the Federal Reserve will introduce another large quantitative easing package tomorrow. To dismiss such rumors about Greeces bailout, its important to recognize and consider that Germany holds all of the bargaining chips in these bailout negotiations. In a speech yesterday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that there would be no leeway on Greeces commitments, in sharp contrast to the hopeful comments made by an anonymous European Union official. As has been the case this entire crisis, what Germany says goes, and theres little more to speculate on beyond that. In regards to the Fed policy meeting tomorrow, Chairman Ben Bernanke will release the Feds revised economic projections as well as hold his quarterly press conference, in which the hopes for more quantitative easing in the very near-term should be dashed. Calls have been high for a QE3 package, especially among the Feds more dovish members such as Charles Evans (who last week stated that he would support any form of more accommodation), but its important to note that the Fed voting bloc has been a bit more conservative lately. At his Congressional testimony a few weeks ago, Chairman Bernanke made it clear that the Fed would not fill the void created by the US irresponsible fiscal policy, and that the Fed could only do so much to achieve its dual mandate of price stability (with inflation near 2) and maximum employment. Accordingly, we do not expect a full-blown QE3 package but instead, we expect, at most, that the FOMC will announce an extension of Operation Twist. Similar to how markets reacted in September when Twist was announced, this could lead to a major US Dollar rally. The commodity currencies are stronger on the day, with the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand Dollars appreciating by 0.52 percent, 0.54 percent, and 0.59 percent against the US Dollar, respectively. The Euro has made a mid-morning surge against the US Dollar, with the EURUSD now up by 0.53 percent. The British Pound and Japanese Yen have underperformed, gaining 0.19 percent and 0.14 percent each. Thus far, on Tuesday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR ) is trading lower, at 10061.36 at the time this report was written, after opening at 10094.12. The index has traded mostly lower, with the high at 10096.20 and the low at 10059.53. Jun 20, 2012 12:23pm Post 906 FOMC Will Not Implement QE3, but Other Forms of Easing Possible It is widely anticipated at the Federal Open Market Committee rate decision today that the Fed Funds rate will be kept unchanged between 0.00 and 0.25 percent. While the rate decision is due at 12:30 EDT / 16:30 GMT, the key parts of todays Federal Reserve events come a few hours later, when the Fed releases its revised economic projections for the economy at 14:00 EDT / 18:00 GMT, just ahead of Chairman Ben Bernankes press conference at 14:15 EDT / 18:15 GMT. With US growth figures slowing alongside a weaker than expected labor market, market participants are widely expecting that some new form of accommodative policy will be introduced. Certainly, in the inter-meeting period, rumors have floated that the Federal Reserve is considering another round of quantitative easing, but views have ranged as to what type of easing package it may be: an asset purchases targeting mortgage backed securities (ala QE1) an outright bond purchases (ala QE2) a further twist of the Feds balance sheet (ala Operation Twist announced in September, concluding at the end of this month) or even a sterilized bond purchase program that involves the Fed using one - to four-week reverse repos (thereby avoiding increasing bank excess reserves). While we believe that there will be some indication of easing, we do not believe it will be on the scale of QE2 outright bond purchases intended to flatten the yield curve. Instead, we believe it will be an extension of Operation Twist. Currently, the Fed has just under 200 billion in short tenor securities left on its balance sheets, which means if the Fed were to continue Operation Twist at its current rate, the program would end in September. Accordingly, this will buy more time for the Fed to assess the economy and devise new ways to help promote growth. In terms of what the market is expecting, calls have been high for a QE3 package, especially among the Feds more dovish members such as Charles Evans (who last week stated that he would support any form of more accommodation), but its important to note that the Fed voting bloc has been a bit more conservative lately (on the whole, most have suggested a wait-and-see approach).At his Congressional testimony a few weeks ago, Chairman Bernanke made it clear that the Fed would not fill the void created by the US irresponsible fiscal policy, and that the Fed could only do so much to achieve its dual mandate of price stability (with Core inflation near 2) and maximum employment. These expectations for QE3 have been strong since the dismal Nonfarm Payrolls report for May that was released on June 1.The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR), after peaking on June 1 at 10312.73, has shed as much as 2.78 percent, falling as low as 10026.23 yesterday, the indexs lowest reading since May 15. In the past five days alone, since rumors emerged that the G20 was considering a globally coordinated intervention to help calm markets should the Greek elections yield an unfavorable result, the Dollar Index has dropped by as much as 1.53 percent. Its fairly evident that the threat of more easing, an ultimately fiat-dilutive measure, has hurt the US Dollars prospects. How Will the Market React Similar to the Operation Twist announcement in September 2011, expectations are high for a major easing package, not just a program that extends the duration of the Feds balance sheet. As such, this could result in a letdown, resulting in the selling of high beta currencies and risk-correlated assets in favor of the US Dollar. AUDUSD 5-min Chart: September 21, 2011 media. dailyfx/illustratio. Picture4.png Charts Created using Marketscope Prepared by Christopher Vecchio As evident in the chart above, when Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke announced that Operation Twist was coming, not a full-scale outright bond purchase program, the US Dollar gained traction quickly. The AUDUSD dropped from near 1.0230 ahead of the press conference to as low as 1.0055 by the end of the US cash equity session. Indeed, when expectations are riding high, theres significant room for a surprise, and in this case, this could result in an explosive move higher by the US Dollar. QE3 ON: AUDUSD Bullish, EURUSD Bullish. USDJPY Bearish QE3 OFF: AUDUSD Bearish, EURUSD Bearish. USDJPY Bullish All eyes remain on Europe as a key summit will be held in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. Early trading this week shows that the markets are selling into the meeting as the Euro and stocks have fallen. The euro fell broadly on Monday as concerns about stuttering global growth and low expectations of progress in tackling the debt crisis at a European summit later in the week weighed on demand for riskier currencies. - Reuters World stocks fell Monday amid concern that a critical European summit later this week will not yield a deal that might restore confidence in the future of the 17-country euro currency. 8211 AP For contrarian traders, this could present an opportunity if the EU Summit goes better than expected. SSI for the Euro flipped from positive to negative last Friday, which means that more FXCM traders were short the Euro than long going into the weekend. Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist at DailyFX has provided some key prices to watch this week: EUR/USD: While our overall outlook remains grossly bearish, from here we still see room for short-term upside before a fresh lower top is sought out. Despite the latest pullback, the market still looks constructive in the short-term while above 1.2440. A closer look at the weekly chart still shows the pair putting in yet another weekly higher high and higher low. Nevertheless, a break back above 1.2750 will now be required to accelerate gains. Below 1.2440 negates. 8211 Click here to read the complete technical analysis at DailyFX Euro At Risk As Hopes Surrounding EU Summit Fizzle As hope wanes for progress to be made at the EU Summit on Thursday and Friday, further losses in the Euro are possible. Here is an excerpt from an article by David Song, Currency Analyst at DailyFX: The Euro touched a low of 1.2458 on Wednesday as German Chancellor Angela Merkel continued to voice her opposition for a Euro bond, and the single currency may face additional headwinds over the remainder of the week should the EU Summit disappoint. Indeed, there are a lot of expectations surrounding the meeting in Brussels as the group pushes for further fiscal integration, but theres little in the way of seeing a major development this week as the governments operating under the fixed-exchange rate system continue to move in their own interest. Read the full article at DailyFX Jun 28, 2012 11:42am Post 911 Euro Dives Follwing Unexpected Rise in German Unemployment Nice post. E/U is ranging for the past 48 hrs. I guess it needs a push to go further down. Perhaps this could be the push you had in mind. The next few days should be interesting. Euro Dives Following Unexpected Rise in German Unemployment The German unemployment rate notably rose for the first time in 3 years, as the Eurozone8217s usually strong economy shows further signs that it is feeling the pain of the European debt crisis. The grim data comes in only hours before the European leaders are set to start their two day EU summit in Brussels. Ahead of the summit, a German official made numerous statements lowering hopes for possible accomplishments by the leaders. The official said that neither a banking union nor an EU treaty will be decided at the summit, and bank recapitalization should be kept at a national level. Read the full article at DailyFX US ISM manufacturing for the month of June was just released and the report came in at 49.7. The 50 number is very important since readings above 50 indicate manufacturing is growing and readings below 50 indicate manufacturing is contracting. This is the first contraction in US manufacturing according to the ISM data since July 2009. Heres a chart: If you thought this week would be quiet due to the US holiday on Wednesday, think again. We have 3 central bank interest rate decisions and the US Non-Farm Payroll figures due to be released this week. Heres a summary of what you need to know about each written by Christopher Vecchio of DailyFX: July 03 Tuesday // 04:30 GMT: AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision The RBA is expected to keep its key rate on hold at 3.50 percent on Tuesday, all while neutralizing its tone in its policy statement. While the RBA cut rates from 4.75 percent to 3.50 percent since November 2011, its clear that the Australian economy is taking on the rate cuts swimmingly: first quarter GDP was well-beyond expectations the labor market, fueled by strong demand for commodities, continues to expand rapidly and the housing sector isnt looking as weak as it was at the beginning of the year. The Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps show that 82.0-bps are being priced out of the AUD over the next 12-months, and that there is only a 15.0 percent chance of a 25.0-bps rate cut at Tuesdays meeting. The key pairs to watch are AUDJPY and AUDUSD. July 05 Thursday // 11:00 GMT: GBP Bank of England Rate Decision Expectations for the BoE to ease further are riding high, with the consensus survey provided by Bloomberg News showing that economists forecast that the Asset Purchase Program target will be raised to 375 billion from 325 billion. All the while, the key interest rate should remain unchanged at 0.50 percent, where it has been on hold since March 2009. Ahead of the Greek elections, the BoE alongside the UK Treasury announced plans for a major liquidity program to help credit flow to small businesses, and it is possible that some more of those plans are disclosed this week. Ultimately, we expect the BoE to cave and ease more, as there are few other viable options at this point in time. The key pairs to watch are GBPJPY and GBPUSD. July 05 Thursday // 11:45 GMT: EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision The Euro-zone Summit yielded the results that the ECB has longed to see: political leaders coming together to implement a plan that will stem the crisis. However, any help from the fiscal side of the growth equation looks to be limited, and the ECB is essentially having its hand forced to implement new measures to help control the spread of the crisis from the periphery into the core. With that said, we think that the ECBs stance has been softening (or leaning towards easing), in the sense that the German economy is starting to experience some of the backlash from the crisis (slower growth, falling price pressures). This months ECB rate decision will reveal this: if the ECB cuts rates, it thus believes politicians have done enough to warrant further help from monetary officials if the ECB does not change its policies, then it is a sign that the ECB believes more needs to be done by political leaders. A rate cut will be supportive of a stronger Euro just like how the July 2011 rate hike was deconstructive. The key pairs to watch are EURGBP, EURJPY, and EURUSD. 07/06 Friday // 12:30 GMT: USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (JUN) This is the most important event of the week. The US labor market has been expanding at a slower pace than most have anticipated in recent months, at an average rate of 101.3K from March through May after expanding at an average pace of 223.3K from December through February. Since December, though, the Unemployment Rate has fallen from 8.5 percent to as low as 8.1 percent in April, before bouncing up to 8.2 percent in May. Questions remain over how much the unseasonably warm winter has had on the employment picture, and by now, any of these backlashes should have run its course. According to a Bloomberg News survey, jobs growth should come in at a mere 90K, above to 69K from May. Similarly, the immaterial figure will leave the Unemployment Rate unchanged at 8.2 percent in June. A stronger figure will be supportive of a stronger US Dollar while a weak figure will inevitably stoke the QE3 fire. The key pairs to watch are EURUSD and USDJPY. AUDUSD Poised for Employment Data One of the most awaited events on the economic calendar this week is the release of the unemployment numbers in Australia. While the event is not traditionally as volatile as NFP, these numbers are significant, and can give a trader insight into the strength of the Australian economy. As well, policy makers at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be using this information to make future policy decisions. Heres an excerpt from an article by Walker England, Trading Instructor at DailyFX: Below you will see a chart displaying the historic unemployment rate out of Australia. This month, expectations are set for the creation of no net new jobs with the economy displaying an unemployment rate of 5.2. Below we can see another chart, this time graphing Australias benchmark interest rates. This rate is set by the central monetary authority and can be used to heat up or slow down the Aussie economy. Through 2012 the RBA has taken expansionary measures lowering this rate down to its current levels at 3.50. If unemployment increases more than expected, this may signal another potential round of rate decreases through the RBA. Ultimately with expectations of a rate cut, it would be expected that the Aussie currency would decrease in value. To learn more, lets take a look at how this policy has affected price for 2012. Click here to read the full article at DailyFX Jul 12, 2012 2:05pm Post 920 US Dollar Breakout is Only the Beginning The past few days have seen the US dollar make gains against most of the major currencies. Heres an excerpt from an article by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist at DailyFX that explains how the US dollar has potential to rise further: EURUSD Euro Forecast to Fall Towards 1.1875 GBPUSD British Pound Expected to Weaken Further USDJPY Japanese Yen Outlook Remains Bullish USDCHF Swiss Franc Forecast to fall Against USD USDCAD Canadian Dollar Predicted to Weaken GBPJPY British Pound Outlook Bearish versus Japanese Yen Retail forex trading crowds have aggressively sold into US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) rallies against the Euro and British Pound. Such one-sided sentiment gives contrarian signal that the EURUSD and GBPUSD may fall to fresh lows. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index now trades at monthly highs as the Euro falls to fresh multi-year lows, and our proprietary retail forex-based Speculative Sentiment Index gives reason to expect further USD strength. Indeed, our technical forecast predicts that the USDOLLAR targets multi-year peaks on the broader Greenback rally.
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